Phillies playoff odds: Wild Card magic number is down to 1


In defiance of the Phillies trying to throw it all away over the last two weeks, the team’s playoff magic number is down to just one. A single Phils win in their season finale series in Houston against the Astros would propel them to the postseason for the first time in 11 years. Conversely, a single loss from the Brewers in their three-game home set against the Diamondbacks would have the Phils back in the playoffs. 

Important: The Fightins also hold a tiebreaker over Milwaukee for that third and final Wild Card spot in the National League, giving them even more of a cushion as real October baseball looms: 

This is where their playoff odds stand:

 Site Playoff odds 
Fangraphs  95.5% 
FiveThirtyEight  95% 
Playoff Status  94% 

I can understand Phillies fans holding their breath until those percentages read 💯. Believe me, I get that. I am in “seeing is believing” mode with this team. I am, however, juiced for the chance to watch a Philadelphia team play postseason baseball for the first time since I was a senior in high school. 

Here are the Phils’ probable starters for this three-game series in Houston:

 Date Phillies  Astros 
Mon., 8:10 p.m.  Aaron Nola  Lance McCullers Jr. 
Tues., 8:10 p.m.  Ranger Suarez  Justin Verlander 
Wed., 4:10 p.m.  Bailey Falter   Framber Valdez

No pressure, fellas!

It’s worth noting that the 104-win Astros have already clinched a first-round bye in the updated playoff format. 

As of right now, the Phillies would have a best-of-three series this upcoming weekend. A win-or-go-home Phillies playoff game the same day as the 4-0 Eagles play? That’s some Philly sports this city hasn’t been accustomed to for a long, long time. 


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